Omar Suárez Sacramento, “Mexico – U.S. Migration Dynamics”
Mentor: Kevin Thom, Economics

In a climate of growing policy and social implications surrounding immigration, accurate measurements of migration are an important part of informed decision making. This research project investigates an alternative method for estimating Mexico-U.S. migration. Specifically, estimations of gross and net migration rates between Mexico and the United States from the years 1990-2015 will be made utilizing census data from Mexico’s statistical agency (INEGI). To determine estimates, descriptive statistics will be conducted for the 1990, 2000, and 2010 waves of the Mexican Census of Households and the 1995, 2005, and 2015 waves of Mexico’s intermedial census, the Conteo. The project will examine how the population of individuals born in Mexico in 1983 shrinks between the years 2000 and 2010 after adjusting for mortality rates and migration to other destinations The alternate estimates produced by the project will be compared to conventional estimates based on legal visa totals and border apprehensions. Many Mexico-US migrants engage in circular migration, therefore complete models that describes how the propensity to migrate has changed are valuable. This research project is part of a larger project where the cohort-level migration rates produced will be combined with other data sets to contribute to such a model.