Kade Barkas, “Toward Quantifying the Overlap Between Severe-Weather and Hurricane Seasons in the Southeast United States”
Mentor: Sergey Kravstov, Atmospheric Sciences, Freshwater Sciences (School of)
Poster #53
The peak of severe weather season extends from late winter to early spring across the southeast United States. In contrast, the traditional Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season begins on 1 June and ends on 30 November. However, the peak of severe weather season anecdotally appears to increasingly overlap with the preparation period for hurricane season. An increasing overlap between the seasons could potentially hinder peoples’ ability to adequately prepare for hurricanes, severe weather, and their related hazards. This motivates our assessment of whether severe weather and hurricane seasons are increasing in the extent to which they overlap in the southeast United States. We have previously used observed severe-weather and tropical cyclone occurrences to define the severe-weather and hurricane seasons and assess their long-term trends on a county-by-county basis across the United States. Now, this study aims to assess and diagnose potential overlaps in regional hurricanes and severe weather seasons in the Southeastern United States and how those overlaps may have changed. Potential overlaps are determined by taking the product of the temporal distributions for severe weather and tropical cyclone seasons to better quantify where they overlap. The presentation will include initial diagnoses of severe weather and hurricane seasons and their overlaps over 27 years between 1997-2023. Initial diagnoses show a correlation between the peak of hurricane season and observed secondary peak in tornado season in and near North Atlantic coastal counties. Further diagnoses show a substantial overlap between severe weather and hurricane seasons near the beginning of hurricane season, with variability across coastal regions.