Working Papers

Current Research Interests:

  1. With several of co-researchers (at U. of Minnesota and U. of Colorado) we estimate the effects of heat waves on economic activity around the world using nearly 1 billion observations around the earth over past 40 years.  Our measure of heat wave and its systematic macro effects are both new.
  2. With co-researchers at UCLA, Cambridge U., U. of Nebraska and Arizona State, we study oil wealth and its effects on producers: (a) its macroeconomic effects (price volatility) on out put and (b) its public finance effects on fiscal taxation instruments.
  3. I analyze heavy tails of extreme risk (black swans) and their application to terrorism risk and financial Markets.
  4. With a co-researcher at the U. of Nebraska, we study international risk and trade, as well as financial risk and economic activity.

Below are some of my working papers. For a full list, see CV

Select Publications (for a full list see my CV)

Heat Waves, Climate Change and Economic Output forthcoming, Journal of the European Economic Association (with Kenn Chua, Jay Coggins, Steve Miller)

Catastrophe and Rational Policy.  Economic Inquiry 59(1): 140-161 (DOI:10.1111/ecin.12925) (with Bryan Weber). 

Kleptocracy and Tax Evasion under Resource Abundance. Economics & Politics 2019:1-59 (with Michael L. Ross, Uchechukwu Jarrett, and Stefan Ruedigery).

Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth. Energy Policy 2019. 126:131-144 (with Uchechukwu Jarrett and Kamiar Mohaddes) .

Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security”  Risk Analysis 2009, 29:1317-1335. (with A. Murshid)

Developing Risk Metrics to Estimate Risks of Catastrophic Biological and Bioterrorist Events: Applications to the Food Industry” in Wiley Handbook of Science and Engineering for Homeland Security, John G. Voeller (ed.) John Wiley & Sons 2009 (New York, NY).

“Optimum Investments to Mitigate Catastrophic Risk: Application to Food Industry Firms” (with Jean Kinsey) May 2007 Sloan Industry Center Working Paper Series # WP 2007-23 (Funded Research)

Optimal Security Investments and Extreme Risk” (with S. Agiwal) Risk Analysis 2012, 32: 1309-1325

Assessing the risk of Terrorism using Extreme Value Statistics”, Proceedings of the Institute of Food Technologists’ First Annual Food Protection and Defense Research Conference, November 3-4, 2005, (Proceedings of the Institute of Food Technologists’ First Annual Food Protection and Defense Research Conference (Atlanta, GA) 2006

Developing Risk Metrics to Estimate Risks of Catastrophic Biological and Bioterrorist Events: Applications to the Food Industry” Wiley Handbook of Science and Engineering for Homeland Security July 2010

Analyzing Catastrophic Terrorist Events with Applications to the Food Industry”, (with A. Murshid) in The Economic Costs and Consequences of Terrorism, Harry Richardson (ed), Edward Elgar 2006 (London, UK), ISBN #1845427343

A Global Chronology of Incidents of Chemical, Biological, Radioactive and Nuclear Attacks: 1950-2005” (with A. Murshid) published at the website of the National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD) at http://www.fpd.umn.ed

Democracy, Rent Seeking, Public Goods and Growth  Journal of Public Economics Vol. 87, 2003, pp. 445-466.

Lobbying, Growth & Public Goods”, European Journal of Political Economy, 1998, 14.4: 453-573. (with T. Roe).

Democracy, Corruption and Growth”, Working Paper, University of Wisconsin, 2002 (With S. Agarwal).

Environment, Growth & Optimal Policy Design”, Journal of Public Economics, 1996, 63: 119-140

Intellectual Property Rights and Economic Growth: Is there a Threshold Effect?”, International Economic Journal 2014, 28:121-135 (with Stefan Ruediger)

Endogenous Imitation And Technology Absorption In a Model Of North-South Trade”, (with Anusua Datta) International Economic Journal 2006, 20: 431-459.

International Trade, Technology and Aggregate Growth: An Overview of New Growth Theory”, Review of Agricultural Economics 2001, 23: 423-440 (with T. Roe).

Labor Specialization and Endogenous Growth”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 1992, 82: 404-408 (with Sunwoog Kim)

“Inflation, Financial Intermediation and Growth: Case of Egypt,” Middle East Development Journal forthcoming (online version published Published online: July 2014) (with Amr Hosny)

“The Heavy Tails in Finance: A Survey” Econometrics: New Research in Nova Science Publications 2012 (Hauppauge, NY) pp. 109-120 (with Stefan Ruediger)

What have we Learned from the Liquidity Crisis of 2007-2008” Journal of Financial Transformation 2012, 34: 119-128 (With Stefan Ruediger)

Financial Cascades in the MENA Region: Theory, Empirics and Policy”, (with Stefan Ruediger) Economic Research Forum, WP 718, October 2012 (Best Paper Award)

Financial Markets and the Financing Choice of Firms in Developing Countries: Exposition with Panel Data” (with S. Agarwal) Global Finance Journal 2004, 15: 57-70

Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries”, (with S. Agarwal) University of Wisconsin Working Paper 2001

“International Stock Market Interdependence” (with S. Agarwal and M. Kandil) University of Wisconsin Working Paper 1999